Quick introduction on Foresight and Design Fiction

For those who may not be familiar with the disciplines

There is no favourable wind for the person who does not know where he is heading.

Seneca

Quick introduction on foresight

Foresight — in French, Prospective — is an approach to thinking about the future and exploring possible futures that aims to inform collective action and decision-making by taking long-term considerations into account (futuribles definition). When facing the unknown, short term forecasts may often be outdated whenever a crisis or major event happen (think about the Covid-19). Mid-term/long-term foresight enable to go beyond immediate constraints and consider possible alternatives.

For readers unfamiliar with foresight, let’s clarify what it is by first explaining what it is not to avoid any misconceptions.

Foresight work is not:

• About prediction or forescasting: it does not aim to predict a single "correct" future but explores a range of possibilities. Predictions imply certainty, while foresight embraces uncertainty.

• Crystal-ball gazing : it is not about guessing or relying on intuition alone; foresight is grounded in evidence, analysis, and structured methodologies. However, radical imagination is necessary to go beyond our mental bias and limits, especially in design fiction.

• A linear extrapolation of current trends: foresight recognizes that the future is non-linear and shaped by complex interactions between trends, disruptions, and human actions.

• A guarantee of accuracy: no foresight exercise can fully anticipate all future developments; its value lies in preparing for uncertainty rather than being "right."

Foresight is a structured approach to imagining and preparing for multiple plausible future scenarios. It helps organizations and individuals navigate uncertainty and complexity. Its goal is not to predict the future but to to anticipate change rather than simply respond to it when it occurs and then develop resilience and adaptability to these potential changes. It basically informs present-day decisions by exploring how different trends, risks, and opportunities might evolve over time.

It is common to represent the taxonomy of alternative futures using the well-known "futures cone" diagram.

• Potential – everything beyond the present moment is a potential future. This comes from the assumption that the future is undetermined and ‘open’ not inevitable or ‘fixed’, which is perhaps the foundational axiom of Futures Studies.

• Preposterous – these are the futures we judge to be ‘ridiculous’, ‘impossible’, or that will ‘never’ happen.

• Possible – these are those futures that we think ‘might’ happen, based on some future knowledge we do not yet possess, but which we might possess someday.

• Plausible – those we think ‘could’ happen based on our current understanding of how the world works (physical laws, social processes, etc).

• Projected – the (singular) default, business as usual, ‘baseline’, extrapolated ‘continuation of the past through the present’ future.

• Probable – those we think are ‘likely to’ happen, usually based on (in many cases, quantitative) current trends.

• Preferable – those we think ‘should’ or ‘ought to’ happen: normative value judgements as opposed to the mostly cognitive, above. There is also of course the associated converse class—the un-preferred futures—a ‘shadow’ form of anti-normative futures that we think should not happen nor ever be allowed to happen (e.g., global climate change scenarios comes to mind).

• (Predicted – the future that someone claims ‘will’ happen. Not used in serious foresight practice.)

A typical foresight project follow the following steps

1. Framing the project: defining the scope and frame of the survey and identifying the key questions and challenges to address.

2. Gathering insights: collecting relevant data, including drivers of changes, megatrends, weak signals, existing scenarios, and insights from interviews or focus groups …)

3. Analyzing and interpretating the data: Examining the collected information to uncover patterns, insights, and implications for the future.

4. Exploring alternative futures: Developing forward-looking perspectives by creating diverse scenarios that illustrate possible, plausible.

5. Strategic Recommendations: Translating insights into actionable strategies to guide decision-making and drive impactful actions in the present.

A successful foresight survey could very well conclude here. In a polished and visually stunning report, destined to take its rightful place among the millions of terabytes of data generated globally every single day. Another masterpiece for the digital archives! 😊

So, how can we go beyond a beautifully crafted report to create real value from the insights developed? How do we spark meaningful discussions or even provoke controversy? How do we inform decision-making and inspire actionable plans for the future?

One powerful approach is to engage not just the intellect but also the emotions. And that’s precisely where design fiction excels—it speaks to the heart as much as the mind, making future possibilities tangible, relatable, and impactful.

Quick introduction on design fiction

“Design fiction is a design practice aiming at exploring and criticising possible futures by creating speculative, and often provocative, scenarios narrated through designed artifacts. It is a way to facilitate and foster debates "... design fiction as a communication and social object creates interactions and dialogues around futures that were missing before. It helps make it real enough for people that you can have a meaningful conversation with” (definition on wikipedia)

The definition of the studio design friction is one of the best to me :

Design Fiction is a speculative and critical anticipatory approach, seeking to inspire new visions of the future, not in a predictive way (‘the future will be like this’),nor in a prescriptive way (‘the future must be like this’), but rather by materialising imaginaries and perspectives to foster debate and adjust today’s decisions.

In other words, Design Fiction allows one to see and experience possible futures, both critical and unifying.

Design Fiction sits at the crossroads of different disciplines all dedicated to envisioning the future: art, science fiction, design, future studies or strategy and policies. And the best part? It’s more fun!

One key element of the design fiction is to emotionally experience the future which take place in one of the scenario developed.

A few years ago, I gave a modest trial in design fiction in exploring the future of the reward function by writing a provocative and fictional article, set in the year 2043, for the Harvard Business Review. The piece boldly declared “The End of the Reward Function,” aiming to spark debate and challenge conventional thinking. The article in itself enabled workshop participants to quickly immerse themselves into the suggested future, react to it and debate about it with colleagues.

This article is what we called a Design Fiction artefact: a tangible fictional output which purpose is to act as a memory from the future. Fiction is a key element for provoking critical thinking and fostering states of awareness.

An artefact can take different formats: a usage page, a LinkedIn, Facebook, TikTok, or other profile, an Instagram conversation, a reimagined Google map or a renamed mountain trail map, a receipt showing new everyday items purchased along with their prices, a movie or festival poster, an advertisement, a web banner, a press article, an official document, the homepage of an official website reimagined, a press release, survey results...

Here is an example of a great project done by the studio design friction Futurs Vivants (Living Futures) is an initiative by the City of Paris as part of its resilience and forward-planning programme. This exploration aimed to raise awareness and prompt reflection among Parisians about the potential effects of global biodiversity decline by 2040. More specifically, the intention was to highlight the repercussions this erosion of nature could have on all living organisms in Paris, as well as at the metropolitan and regional scales.

By creating prototypes, narratives, or artifacts from hypothetical futures, design fiction transforms abstract ideas into concrete forms. This makes complex technological and societal changes easier to understand and relate to. It promotes critical thinking by questioning current practices, systems, and assumptions and therefore create discussions, that could be controversial, but beneficial for better understanding others.

Conclusion

In combining the structured exploration of foresight with the imaginative storytelling of design fiction, we unlock a powerful synergy—one that not only helps us anticipate and navigate uncertainty but also inspires bold, collaborative action. Together, these approaches transform future-thinking from a theoretical exercise into a creative, participatory process, empowering us to shape futures that are not only possible but truly plausible.

References

Foresight

• https://www.futuribles.com/en/faq/quest-ce-que-la-prospective/

• https://thevoroscope.com/2017/02/24/the-futures-cone-use-and-history/

Design fiction:

• https://design-friction.com/

Artefact of design fiction:

• https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/retour-dexploration-n1-vers-un-futur-pluss-raconter-sa-hbe8e/?trackingId=1Z2ePPImRQK2S3EJINxT4w%3D%3D